Target Q2 message test

Control-relative simulation analysis
Public aggregate view
Message
Control-only view
Control State

+ = difference from Control State is statistically reliable at the 95% confidence level.Point-in-time comparison; exploratory study.

Summary highlights

No tested message finished with better viewer Net Sentiment than Control

Consumer Focus finished most negative. Family Value looked less negative only on the separate response-intensity measure, and that difference was directional rather than statistically reliable.

Sentiment read

Consumer Focus was most negative; Family Value’s apparent improvement was directional only.

Every tested message finished with lower viewer Net Sentiment than Control. That ranking is descriptive because this Net measure has no confidence test. No message showed a statistically reliable less-negative improvement. On mean response intensity—the measure with a 95% test—Family Value was consistently less negative but did not pass. Community Impact was reliably more negative through eight hours; Consumer Focus through six hours.

Net Sentiment over time

Control began negative and remained negative

Descriptive • no 95% Net test
-100-75-50-2502h4h6h8h
Control State
How to read Net Sentiment
Higher / less negative (better)Balanced responseLower / more negative (worse)
The theoretical range is −100 to +100. All observed values are below zero. Message colors identify conditions; red, amber and green gap colors show worse, similar and better direction versus Control.

Higher values are better and lower values are more negative. Consumer Focus finished lowest; no tested message finished above Control. This viewer Net ranking is descriptive, so the chart has no + markers.

Most negative

Consumer Focus had the weakest viewer Net Sentiment

Descriptive • no test

It ranked lowest at every major read. Community Impact had all-negative reactions, but Consumer Focus ranked lowest once all confirmed viewers were used as the denominator.

Less negative than Control?

None at the final viewer-Net read

Descriptive • no test

All Combined was briefly less negative at two hours, but that was descriptive and it finished more negative. Family Value was closest to Control at final, but still below it.

Directional exception

Family Value looked less negative on response intensity

Directional only

It was the only message consistently less negative than Control on this separate measure, but the difference did not pass the 95% test.

Reliable worsening

Community Impact was reliably more negative through eight hours

+ 95% reliable

Consumer Focus was reliably more negative through six hours; its eight-hour difference was directional only. These tests apply to mean response intensity—not viewer Net Sentiment.

Reach leader

Tariff Restraint travelled furthest

+ 95% reliable

Its final reach lift versus Control passed the 95% test.

Peer influence

No standout sharing group emerged

Descriptive • too sparse

Sharing and liking were too sparse to support a statistical segment ranking.