Target Q2 message test

Control-relative simulation analysis
Public aggregate view
Message
Control-only view
Control State

+ = difference from Control State is statistically reliable at the 95% confidence level.Point-in-time comparison; exploratory study.

Summary highlights

Shelf Value led reach and finished less negative than Control

Consumer Focus remained the most negative. Shelf Value’s viewer-Net advantage is descriptive, while its less-negative response intensity passed the 95% test at every major read.

Sentiment and reach read

Shelf Value was the only message to finish less negative than Control—and it reached the most people.

Its viewer Net Sentiment advantage is descriptive because that measure has no confidence test. On mean response intensity—the separate measure with a 95% test—Shelf Value was reliably less negative at every major read. Its reach lift also passed. Consumer Focus remained the most negative.

Net Sentiment over time

Control began negative and remained negative

Descriptive • no 95% Net test
-100-75-50-2502h4h6h8hControl State: -73.8 at 2h • n=42Control State: -63.6 at 4h • n=55Control State: -60.7 at 6h • n=61Control State: -60.7 at 8h • n=61
Control State
How to read Net Sentiment
Higher / less negative (better)Balanced responseLower / more negative (worse)
The theoretical range is −100 to +100. All observed values are below zero. Message colors identify conditions; red, amber and green gap colors show worse, similar and better direction versus Control.

Higher values are better and lower values are more negative. Shelf Value finished highest and above Control; Consumer Focus finished lowest. This viewer Net ranking is descriptive, so the chart has no + markers.

Less negative

Shelf Value had the strongest viewer Net Sentiment

Descriptive • no test

It was the only message to finish less negative than Control once all confirmed viewers were used as the denominator.

Reliable improvement

Shelf Value was reliably less negative on response intensity

+ 95% reliable

The less-negative gap versus Control passed the 95% test at two, four, six and eight hours.

Most negative

Consumer Focus had the weakest viewer Net Sentiment

Descriptive • no test

It ranked lowest at every major read. Community Impact had all-negative reactions, but Consumer Focus ranked lowest once all confirmed viewers were used as the denominator.

Reliable worsening

Community Impact was reliably more negative through eight hours

+ 95% reliable

Consumer Focus was reliably more negative through six hours; its eight-hour difference was directional only. These tests apply to mean response intensity—not viewer Net Sentiment.

Reach leader

Shelf Value travelled furthest

+ 95% reliable

Its final reach lift versus Control passed the 95% test.

Peer influence

No standout sharing group emerged

Descriptive • too sparse

Sharing and liking were too sparse to support a statistical segment ranking.